But don’t rule out the opposition yet
The conventional wisdom in Mexico is that populist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador scored a massive victory in Sunday’s elections in Mexico’s biggest state — and that the ruling Morena Party will be invincible in the 2024 presidential elections. That may very well happen, but it’s not inevitable.Mexico’s opposition coalition could still win the 2024 elections if it coalesces behind a charismatic outsider who is not perceived to be a representative of the traditional parties’ discredited hierarchies.
In other words, Lopez Obrador, who under Mexico’s Constitution cannot run for re-election, could still be prevented from having one of his own party elected president next year if the Va por Mexico opposition alliance remains united and nominates a formidable unity candidate.That could still happen.
MORENA WINS, LOSES
While there were two elections on June 4 — for the governorships of the state of Mexico and the northern state of Coahuila — and the president’s Morena party won only the first one, it was a major triumph for Lopez Obrador. The state of Mexico is the country’s most populated one, and has 12.5 million voters. It had been ruled by the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party for nearly a century.
Following Sunday’s elections, Lopez Obrador’s party will now govern 21 out of the country’s 32 states, which will give it a huge advantage to mobilize people and resources for next year’s presidential elections.
Morena governors will now rule over 70% of the country’s population, while the opposition’s coalition will govern over only 27%. But Lopez Obrador’s party victory in next year’s elections is not inevitable.
First, there was a huge abstention rate in Sunday’s vote. Only 49% of registered voters in the state of Mexico voted on Sunday, nearly 4% less than six years ago. Although elections with huge abstention rates tend to help the party with the biggest electoral machine, Sunday’s vote was a telling sign that Mexicans are unenthusiastic about traditional politicians and could be energized by an outsider running as opposition candidate.That has happened in the United States with Donald Trump, in Brazil with Jair Bolsonaro, in Chile with Gabriel Boric and in Peru with Pedro Castillo; and it could happen in Argentina’s October elections. It could also happen in Mexico if the opposition alliance picks a strong non-traditional candidate from civil society or who is not associated with the parties’ elites. PARTY INFIGHTING
Second, Lopez Obrador’s party may be weakened by an upcoming internal dispute over who will be the Morena candidate. There are four leading contenders, including Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard. The losers may break away from the party.
More important, Morena is a creation of Lopez Obrador, and as the president becomes a lame duck, his power to hold it together will weaken as we get closer to the July 2024 presidential elections. An outgoing government that comes across as chaotic may scare away voters in a country worried about record homicide rates and a stagnant economy.
Third, the opposition coalition may regain its footing by uniting behind an outsider like Xóchitl Galvez. She was born in absolute poverty, speaks the indigenous Otomi language, got a degree in computer engineering, became a businesswoman, served as head of Mexico’s indigenous affairs office in the early 2000s and became an opposition senator in 2018. She, or somebody like her, would destroy Lopez Obrador’s false narrative that Mexico’s opposition is made up of “conservatives” and “oligarchs.”While she has run for office for the opposition National Action Party, she is not part of the party’s hierarchy and projects an image of independence. She is reportedly running for mayor of Mexico City next year, but may be persuaded to aim for the presidency.Barring a surprise opposition candidate who could demolish Lopez Obrador’s tale that the opposition is run by the rich, the president’s party will almost surely win in 2024. But the opposition coalition has until October or November to pick its candidate. I won’t pronounce it dead until I see whom they choose. It could still prove the conventional wisdom wrong.
www.solmexiconews.com