Updated Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA/NHC Advisory 18, issued at 3 p.m. CST (21:00 UTC). This replaces our earlier Advisory 17 forecast.
Hurricane Simon remains a dangerous Category 4 storm as its core skirts west-central Mexico. An offshore track does not mean Puerto Vallarta or coastal Nayarit is out of danger.
Maximum sustained winds are 130 mph (215 km/h), down from 145 mph in the previous advisory. At the advisory time, the centre was about 90 km south of Cabo Corrientes, moving north-northwest at 9 km/h. These are the storm’s maximum winds, not a forecast for every community.
Warnings remain for Puerto Vallarta and coastal Nayarit
A hurricane warning remains in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, including the Puerto Vallarta and coastal Nayarit stretch, and for Las Islas Marías. A new hurricane watch covers the coast north of El Roblito to Bahía Tempehuaya. A warning means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in the warning area; a watch means they are possible.
Near the coast tonight; offshore does not mean the danger is over
The NHC expects Simon to pass near the coast this afternoon and evening, move a little farther offshore Monday, and turn back toward Mexico Wednesday. Further weakening is forecast, but Simon is now expected to remain a hurricane offshore Monday and Tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are likely already occurring within the warning area and are expected to spread northward this evening into Monday. The new watch area could experience tropical-storm conditions Tuesday night and hurricane conditions Wednesday.
Flooding, destructive waves and dangerous surf
NOAA forecasts another 2–4 inches (about 50–100 mm) of rain, with isolated additional amounts of 8 inches (about 200 mm), over portions of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa through early Thursday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides remain a concern, especially on steep terrain. Dangerous storm surge is expected near and east of where the centre approaches land, accompanied by large, destructive waves.
Follow local Protección Civil instructions and evacuation orders. Avoid beaches, unnecessary coastal travel and flooded roads. Do not interpret a shift offshore or lower maximum winds as an all-clear.
Official sources
- NOAA/NHC: latest public advisory
- NOAA/NHC: forecast map and warnings
- NOAA/NHC: aviso público en español
This is a dated forecast report. Consult the latest official advisory and local authorities as conditions change.